Salgueirosvs
Machico
COMPLETEDPortugal · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B · 9/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Salgueiros · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Salgueiros 0-0 Machico, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Salgueiros 1-1 Machico
Original prediction
Salgueiros
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 41.6% | 47.1% | 5.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.92 | 30.9% | 30.8% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.29 | 27.4% | 22.1% | -5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.92 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Projected Score
Salgueiros 0–0 Machico
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Salgueiros
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
47.1%
Salgueiros has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
GF 5 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/0.20