Salgueirosvs
Estoril
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 10/18/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Estoril · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Salgueiros 1-1 Estoril
Original prediction
Estoril
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.72 | 11.7% | 36.0% | 24.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.26 | 21.2% | 25.6% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 1.35 | 67.0% | 38.4% | -28.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.26 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-28.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Estoril
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Estoril has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40