GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 10/31/2023, 7:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Salford City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Highconfidence

Salford City are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWDLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Manchester United U21 are 0W-1D-2L in their last 3 (LDL), averaging 0.67 scored and 3.67 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 8 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Salford City hold an 11.7-point power-rating edge (33.8 v 22.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.2% in the EFL Trophy, while Salford City holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 76% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Salford City

Probability

46.2%

Model confidence

46.2%

Salford City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Salford CityDWDLL

GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Manchester United U21LDL

GF 2 · GA 11 · avg 0.67/3.67

BTTS 2/3O2.5 1/3
Salford CityManchester United U21
55.6Attack55.6
0.0Defence0.0
33.3Form11.1
33.8Power22.2
2.34xG1.84
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