Salernitanavs
Bari
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone C · 10/4/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Salernitana 2-1 Bari
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.26 | 40.0% | 35.4% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.4% | 29.5% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.85 | 31.6% | 35.1% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
29.5%
Model confidence
35.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SalernitanaLWDWD
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
BariWWDWW
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
SalernitanaBari
33.3Attack50.0
33.3Defence50.0
0.0Form50.0
23.7Power50.0
1.24xG1.36