Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Salcedo · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Salcedo are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Vega Real are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Salcedo hold a 10.3-point power-rating edge (57.2 v 46.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 19.3% in the Liga Mayor, while Salcedo holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 32% BTTS chance and 27% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Salcedo
Probability
51.6%
Model confidence
19.3%
Salcedo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20