Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Salcedo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Salcedo 1-0 Moca, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Salcedo 1-0 Moca
Original prediction
Salcedo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 17:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 55.2% | 57.1% | 2.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.1% | 26.6% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 4.79 | 18.7% | 16.3% | -2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.0 pts
Projected Score
Salcedo 1–0 Moca
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Salcedo
Probability
57.1%
Model confidence
57.1%
Salcedo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SalcedoWWDWD
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
MocaLDWWW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
SalcedoMoca
70.8Attack29.2
83.3Defence79.2
83.3Form54.2
78.9Power57.4
1.35xG0.50