Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Salcedo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Salcedo 1-1 Cibao
Original prediction
Salcedo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.62 | 34.6% | 36.6% | 2.0 pts |
| Draw | 2.96 | 30.6% | 30.3% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.59 | 34.9% | 33.1% | -1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.96 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–115%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Salcedo
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Salcedo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SalcedoWDWDW
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CibaoWWLWW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SalcedoCibao
33.3Attack33.3
77.8Defence83.3
55.6Form66.7
59.1Power64.8
1.07xG0.93