Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spēks · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-2
Salaspils are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 3.60 scored and 2.60 conceded, while Spēks are 2W-0D-1L in their last 3 (WLW), averaging 3.33 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 8 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Spēks hold an 11.7-point power-rating edge (57.3 v 69.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.4% in the Cup, while Spēks holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 82% BTTS chance and 84% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Spēks
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Spēks has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 18 · GA 13 · avg 3.60/2.60
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 3.33/2.00