Saint Martinvs
US Virgin Islands
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 9/26/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Saint Martin · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 3-0 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Saint Martin 0-2 US Virgin Islands
Original prediction
Saint Martin
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.09 | 84.9% | 71.1% | -13.7 pts |
| Draw | 9.14 | 10.1% | 15.9% | 5.8 pts |
| Away | 18.26 | 5.1% | 12.9% | 7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.3–09%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Saint Martin
Probability
71.1%
Model confidence
71.1%
Saint Martin has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 10 · avg 2.80/2.00
GF 3 · GA 16 · avg 0.60/3.20