Saint Martinvs
Bahamas
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 10/6/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Saint Martin · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%), 3-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Saint Martin 6-0 Bahamas
Original prediction
Saint Martin
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.02 | 92.0% | 68.9% | -23.2 pts |
| Draw | 16.07 | 5.8% | 16.8% | 11.0 pts |
| Away | 43.71 | 2.1% | 14.3% | 12.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.2–09%
- 3.3–19%
Predicted outcome
Saint Martin
Probability
68.9%
Model confidence
68.9%
Saint Martin has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20
GF 8 · GA 21 · avg 1.60/4.20