Saint Etiennevs
Nantes
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 2 · 10/24/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Saint Etienne · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (13%), 2-0 (13%), 4-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Saint Etienne 1-0 Nantes
Original prediction
Saint Etienne
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 54.4% | 54.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.75 | 24.7% | 24.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 4.45 | 20.8% | 21.6% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.70 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–013%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.4–010%
Predicted outcome
Saint Etienne
Probability
54.1%
Model confidence
54.1%
Saint Etienne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00