Saint Etiennevs
Montpellier
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 2 · 9/5/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Saint Etienne · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Saint Etienne 1-0 Montpellier, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Saint Etienne 3-1 Montpellier
Original prediction
Saint Etienne
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.55 | 59.9% | 53.0% | -6.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.07 | 22.9% | 26.0% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 5.38 | 17.3% | 21.0% | 3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.8 pts
Projected Score
Saint Etienne 1–0 Montpellier
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Saint Etienne
Probability
53.0%
Model confidence
53.0%
Saint Etienne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Saint EtienneWWWWW
GF 17 · GA 6 · avg 3.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
MontpellierDWWDW
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Saint EtienneMontpellier
100.0Attack25.0
75.0Defence91.7
100.0Form66.7
91.5Power64.8
1.51xG0.72