Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Nahda · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Saham 0-1 Al-Nahda
Original prediction
Al-Nahda
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.31 | 17.0% | 26.5% | 9.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.1% | 27.4% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 1.55 | 57.9% | 46.1% | -11.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Al-Nahda
Probability
46.1%
Model confidence
46.1%
Al-Nahda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SahamLWLDD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Al-NahdaWLWDD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
SahamAl-Nahda
33.3Attack83.3
66.7Defence66.7
60.0Form83.3
56.5Power77.8
0.96xG1.30