Sagan Tosuvs
Tokyo Verdy
COMPLETEDJapan · J-League Cup · 9/29/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sagan Tosu · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sagan Tosu 2-1 Tokyo Verdy
Original prediction
Sagan Tosu
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.94 | 30.9% | 36.2% | 5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 28.4% | 29.3% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.24 | 40.7% | 34.5% | -6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.94 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Sagan Tosu
Probability
36.2%
Model confidence
36.2%
Sagan Tosu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20