Sagan Tosuvs
Kataller Toyama
COMPLETEDJapan · Emperor Cup · 8/26/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sagan Tosu · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sagan Tosu 4-0 Kataller Toyama
Original prediction
Sagan Tosu
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.54 | 35.9% | 37.7% | 1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 29.8% | 28.9% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.66 | 34.3% | 33.4% | -0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Sagan Tosu
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Sagan Tosu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60