Sagan Tosuvs
Fujieda MYFC
COMPLETEDJapan · J2 League · 10/10/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Sagan Tosu 0-1 Fujieda MYFC, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Sagan Tosu 1-0 Fujieda MYFC
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 50.7% | 34.4% | -16.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 26.5% | 30.0% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 4.01 | 22.8% | 35.6% | 12.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.5 pts
Projected Score
Sagan Tosu 0–1 Fujieda MYFC
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.0%
Model confidence
35.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Sagan TosuLWLLL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Fujieda MYFCDLDLD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
Sagan TosuFujieda MYFC
29.6Attack48.1
55.6Defence63.0
29.6Form48.1
40.2Power54.9
0.73xG1.22