Sagamiharavs
Parceiro Nagano
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 9/5/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sagamihara · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sagamihara 1-1 Parceiro Nagano
Original prediction
Sagamihara
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 53.1% | 49.1% | -4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 26.5% | 26.3% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.41 | 20.4% | 24.6% | 4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.39 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Sagamihara
Probability
49.1%
Model confidence
49.1%
Sagamihara has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40