Sagamiharavs
Osaka
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 10/3/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Osaka · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sagamihara 1-0 Osaka
Original prediction
Osaka
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.42 | 37.0% | 32.0% | -5.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.1% | 28.3% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.57 | 34.9% | 39.8% | 4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Osaka
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Osaka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SagamiharaDLWDL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
OsakaLWWWD
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
SagamiharaOsaka
58.3Attack70.8
58.3Defence70.8
50.0Form66.7
56.5Power69.1
1.14xG1.61