Sagamiharavs
Kitakyushu
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 9/20/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sagamihara · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sagamihara 1-2 Kitakyushu
Original prediction
Sagamihara
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 47.7% | 62.5% | 14.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.2% | 20.3% | -5.9 pts |
| Away | 3.41 | 26.1% | 17.2% | -8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.3–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Sagamihara
Probability
62.5%
Model confidence
62.5%
Sagamihara has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40