Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Turan · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Safa Baku 0-1 Turan, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Safa Baku 0-1 Turan
Original prediction
Turan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.21 | 14.6% | 21.5% | 6.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.00 | 22.6% | 27.0% | 4.4 pts |
| Away | 1.44 | 62.8% | 51.5% | -11.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.3 pts
Projected Score
Safa Baku 0–1 Turan
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Turan
Probability
51.5%
Model confidence
51.5%
Turan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Safa BakuLLLLW
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
TuranLWDWL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Safa BakuTuran
11.1Attack33.3
38.9Defence73.3
16.7Form53.3
26.4Power56.5
0.72xG1.30