Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sabah FA · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Safa Baku 0-3 Sabah FA
Original prediction
Sabah FA
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.96 | 13.0% | 31.8% | 18.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.43 | 20.4% | 27.0% | 6.6 pts |
| Away | 1.36 | 66.6% | 41.2% | -25.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Sabah FA
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
Sabah FA has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Safa BakuLLWLL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Sabah FALWWWL
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Safa BakuSabah FA
33.3Attack33.3
100.0Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
80.3Power80.3
1.26xG1.07