Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Safa Baku · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Safa Baku are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWDDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Imisli FK are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDLDW), averaging 0.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Safa Baku hold a 10.1-point power-rating edge (50.0 v 39.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 17.8% in the Premyer Liqa, while Safa Baku holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 35% BTTS chance and 31% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Safa Baku
Probability
52.7%
Model confidence
17.8%
Safa Baku has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80