Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kapaz · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Safa Baku 0-1 Kapaz, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Safa Baku 1-2 Kapaz
Original prediction
Kapaz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.84 | 31.8% | 24.8% | -7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.5% | 27.7% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 39.8% | 47.5% | 7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.8 pts
Projected Score
Safa Baku 0–1 Kapaz
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Kapaz
Probability
47.5%
Model confidence
47.5%
Kapaz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Safa BakuLLLLL
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
KapazDWDWL
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
Safa BakuKapaz
16.7Attack33.3
37.5Defence61.9
12.5Form52.4
26.1Power51.5
0.71xG1.31