Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Safa Baku · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Safa Baku 0-1 Imisli FK
Original prediction
Safa Baku
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 44.7% | 45.4% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 29.6% | 28.1% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 3.52 | 25.7% | 26.5% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Safa Baku
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
Safa Baku has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Safa BakuWLLWD
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Imisli FKLDDLD
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Safa BakuImisli FK
33.3Attack33.3
100.0Defence0.0
100.0Form0.0
80.3Power15.3
1.64xG0.93