Sacramento Republicvs
Oakland Roots
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 10/25/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sacramento Republic · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sacramento Republic 3-2 Oakland Roots
Original prediction
Sacramento Republic
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 54.4% | 42.3% | -12.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 23.8% | 27.4% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 4.18 | 21.7% | 30.3% | 8.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Sacramento Republic
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Sacramento Republic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40