Sacramento Republicvs
Las Vegas Lights
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 10/1/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sacramento Republic · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Sacramento Republic 1-0 Las Vegas Lights, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Sacramento Republic 3-2 Las Vegas Lights
Original prediction
Sacramento Republic
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.51 | 60.6% | 51.7% | -8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.98 | 23.0% | 27.0% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 5.56 | 16.4% | 21.3% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.9 pts
Projected Score
Sacramento Republic 1–0 Las Vegas Lights
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Sacramento Republic
Probability
51.7%
Model confidence
51.7%
Sacramento Republic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40