GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 3/29/2026, 2:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Sacramento Republic · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0

Highconfidence

Sacramento Republic are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDWLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.40 conceded, while El Paso Locomotive are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDWLL), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Sacramento Republic hold a 3.6-point power-rating edge (55.6 v 52.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.7% in the USL Championship, while Sacramento Republic holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Sacramento Republic

Probability

45.7%

Model confidence

45.7%

Sacramento Republic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Sacramento RepublicDDWLD

GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40

BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
El Paso LocomotiveWDWLL

GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Sacramento RepublicEl Paso Locomotive
44.4Attack50.9
70.4Defence52.6
50.0Form49.1
55.6Power52.0
1.36xG0.82
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