Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Saburtalo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Saburtalo are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDLWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Samgurali are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLDDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Saburtalo hold a 3.9-point power-rating edge (51.6 v 47.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.4% in the Erovnuli Liga, while Saburtalo holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Saburtalo
Probability
52.4%
Model confidence
52.4%
Saburtalo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20