Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Saburtalo · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Saburtalo are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDLDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Larne are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLLWW), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 45.3 against 45.3. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.0% in the UEFA Europa League, while Saburtalo holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Saburtalo
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
14.0%
Saburtalo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00