Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sabadell · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Sabadell 0-0 Tenerife, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Sabadell 1-1 Tenerife
Original prediction
Sabadell
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 12:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.91 | 48.7% | 44.1% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 29.7% | 31.3% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 4.31 | 21.6% | 24.6% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.12 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.6 pts
Projected Score
Sabadell 0–0 Tenerife
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Sabadell
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
Sabadell has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SabadellLWDDW
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
TenerifeDDLDL
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
SabadellTenerife
33.3Attack40.0
73.3Defence53.3
53.3Form43.3
55.8Power46.9
1.02xG0.57