Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Oviedo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sabadell 3-1 Oviedo
Original prediction
Oviedo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 42.2% | 33.7% | -8.5 pts |
| Draw | 2.92 | 31.9% | 28.8% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 3.58 | 26.0% | 37.5% | 11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Oviedo
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Oviedo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SabadellLWWDD
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
OviedoWDWLD
GF 4 · GA 1 · avg 0.80/0.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
SabadellOviedo
50.0Attack100.0
33.3Defence100.0
50.0Form100.0
47.8Power97.0
1.17xG1.56