Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sabadell · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sabadell 3-2 Cordoba
Original prediction
Sabadell
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 45.5% | 41.0% | -4.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 28.3% | 28.6% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.55 | 26.2% | 30.4% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Sabadell
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Sabadell has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SabadellWDDWD
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
CordobaLWLLW
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
SabadellCordoba
50.0Attack46.8
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form43.7
50.0Power48.2
1.49xG1.17