Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Almeria · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sabadell 1-0 Almeria
Original prediction
Almeria
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:59 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.53 | 36.7% | 34.6% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 30.1% | 29.0% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.80 | 33.2% | 36.4% | 3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Almeria
Probability
36.4%
Model confidence
36.4%
Almeria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SabadellDDWDD
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
AlmeriaLWWWL
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
SabadellAlmeria
50.0Attack56.1
50.0Defence56.1
50.0Form53.0
50.0Power55.8
1.27xG1.42