Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rylands · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rylands 0-1 Chorley
Original prediction
Rylands
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.05 | 29.6% | 42.4% | 12.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.6% | 25.1% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.02 | 44.8% | 32.4% | -12.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Rylands
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Rylands has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RylandsDWWWL
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
ChorleyLWLDD
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
RylandsChorley
66.7Attack55.6
77.8Defence55.6
66.7Form44.4
68.7Power53.1
1.96xG1.30