Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rwanda · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rwanda 3-1 Liberia
Original prediction
Rwanda
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 52.5% | 45.2% | -7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 27.9% | 28.4% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 4.65 | 19.6% | 26.4% | 6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Rwanda
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
45.2%
Rwanda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RwandaLWDDL
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
LiberiaWLDLL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
RwandaLiberia
22.2Attack33.3
66.7Defence33.3
22.2Form11.1
40.2Power29.5
1.33xG0.92