Ruthin Townvs
Penrhyncoch
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 9/25/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ruthin Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ruthin Town 2-0 Penrhyncoch
Original prediction
Ruthin Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.20 | 40.7% | 46.8% | 6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 24.7% | 22.9% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.59 | 34.5% | 30.3% | -4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Ruthin Town
Probability
46.8%
Model confidence
46.8%
Ruthin Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 14 · avg 0.40/2.80
GF 3 · GA 17 · avg 0.60/3.40