Ruthin Townvs
Caersws
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 9/4/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caersws · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ruthin Town 0-3 Caersws
Original prediction
Caersws
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.40 | 26.7% | 23.4% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 23.7% | 22.2% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 1.83 | 49.6% | 54.4% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.83 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Caersws
Probability
54.4%
Model confidence
54.4%
Caersws has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Ruthin TownLLDWL
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
CaerswsWWLWD
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Ruthin TownCaersws
33.3Attack66.7
27.8Defence53.3
22.2Form66.7
31.0Power63.7
1.23xG2.41