Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Saburtalo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Rustavi are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Saburtalo are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Saburtalo hold a 15.1-point power-rating edge (36.5 v 51.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.2% in the Erovnuli Liga, while Saburtalo holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Saburtalo
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
13.2%
Saburtalo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80