Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rustavi · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Rustavi are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DWLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Gagra are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LDLDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Gagra hold a 3.6-point power-rating edge (36.5 v 40.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.4% in the Erovnuli Liga, while Rustavi holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Rustavi
Probability
48.4%
Model confidence
12.4%
Rustavi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00