Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Russia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Russia 3-3 Nigeria
Original prediction
Russia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 22 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 58.5% | 56.3% | -2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 24.6% | 23.6% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 5.54 | 16.8% | 20.1% | 3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.79 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Russia
Probability
56.3%
Model confidence
56.3%
Russia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RussiaWWWWL
GF 14 · GA 1 · avg 2.80/0.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 3/5
NigeriaLWLDW
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
RussiaNigeria
81.0Attack83.3
90.5Defence33.3
76.2Form66.7
79.1Power64.8
2.43xG0.95