Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Russia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Russia 6-0 Namibia
Original prediction
Russia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.11 | 84.4% | 58.0% | -26.3 pts |
| Draw | 8.27 | 11.4% | 22.9% | 11.5 pts |
| Away | 22.07 | 4.3% | 19.0% | 14.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-26.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–012%
- 2.2–012%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Russia
Probability
58.0%
Model confidence
58.0%
Russia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RussiaWWWLD
GF 8 · GA 1 · avg 1.60/0.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
NamibiaLWLLD
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
RussiaNamibia
61.1Attack0.0
88.9Defence100.0
72.2Form33.3
73.4Power45.3
1.81xG0.81