Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Russia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Russia 2-0 Iran
Original prediction
Russia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 52.3% | 48.0% | -4.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 26.3% | 26.0% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.36 | 21.4% | 26.1% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Russia
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
Russia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RussiaWWLDW
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
IranLWWWL
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
RussiaIran
83.3Attack80.0
77.8Defence60.0
66.7Form60.0
71.2Power64.0
1.93xG1.20