Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rubin · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rubin 1-1 Akhmat
Original prediction
Rubin
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.82 | 33.7% | 39.3% | 5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 31.4% | 28.5% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.72 | 34.9% | 32.1% | -2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.03 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Rubin
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Rubin has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RubinDWDDD
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 1/5
AkhmatLDWWL
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
RubinAkhmat
50.0Attack33.3
33.3Defence50.0
50.0Form16.7
47.8Power36.5
1.54xG1.19