RSD Alcalávs
Navalcarnero
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · 10/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
RSD Alcalá · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: RSD Alcalá 0-0 Navalcarnero, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
RSD Alcalá 1-3 Navalcarnero
Original prediction
RSD Alcalá
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 45.4% | 38.6% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.4% | 30.6% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 3.36 | 27.2% | 30.8% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.8 pts
Projected Score
RSD Alcalá 0–0 Navalcarnero
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
RSD Alcalá
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
RSD Alcalá has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40