Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rotherham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Rotherham are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Oldham are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Rotherham hold a 47.6-point power-rating edge (68.7 v 21.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 64.7% in the EFL Trophy, while Rotherham holds the strongest overall chance at 65% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Rotherham
Probability
64.7%
Model confidence
64.7%
Rotherham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80