GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 10/8/2024, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Rotherham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Rotherham are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WWDLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Newcastle United U21 are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDLDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Rotherham hold a 35.8-point power-rating edge (68.7 v 32.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 57.2% in the EFL Trophy, while Rotherham holds the strongest overall chance at 57% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Rotherham

Probability

57.2%

Model confidence

57.2%

Rotherham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

RotherhamWWDLD

GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Newcastle United U21DDLDL

GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
RotherhamNewcastle United U21
50.0Attack22.2
77.8Defence55.6
72.2Form11.1
68.7Power32.9
1.91xG0.90
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