Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Morecambe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Rotherham are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Morecambe are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLDWW), averaging 3.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Morecambe hold a 25.3-point power-rating edge (20.0 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.8% in the League Cup, while Morecambe holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Morecambe
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Morecambe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 16 · GA 6 · avg 3.20/1.20