GGOALVIO

Germany · 3. Liga · 10/23/2026, 5:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Rot-Weiß Essen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5

Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.

Prediction record

Final result

Rot-Weiß Essen 1-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg

Original prediction

Rot-Weiß Essen

Outcome

Correct

Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.

Value and market comparison

Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00
MarketOddsImplied probabilityModel probabilityDifference
Home1.7850.7%58.2%7.5 pts
Draw3.8123.7%18.8%-4.9 pts
Away3.5425.5%23.0%-2.5 pts

Historical EV

1X2 0.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -

Value score

7.5 pts

Most Likely Scores

  1. 1.2–19%
  2. 2.3–18%
  3. 3.1–17%

Predicted outcome

Rot-Weiß Essen

Probability

58.2%

Model confidence

58.2%

Rot-Weiß Essen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Rot-Weiß EssenLWDDD

GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
SSV Jahn RegensburgDDWLD

GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20

BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Rot-Weiß EssenSSV Jahn Regensburg
60.0Attack66.7
56.7Defence36.7
60.0Form33.3
59.7Power44.6
2.60xG1.52
View match centre →