Rot-weiss Erfurtvs
FSV Zwickau
COMPLETEDGermany · Regionalliga - Nordost · 10/16/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rot-weiss Erfurt · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (13%), 2-0 (13%), 4-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rot-weiss Erfurt 2-2 FSV Zwickau
Original prediction
Rot-weiss Erfurt
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.55 | 58.8% | 77.6% | 18.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.17 | 21.9% | 13.6% | -8.2 pts |
| Away | 4.71 | 19.4% | 8.8% | -10.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.17 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–013%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.4–010%
Predicted outcome
Rot-weiss Erfurt
Probability
77.6%
Model confidence
77.6%
Rot-weiss Erfurt has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 9 · avg 2.80/1.80
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60