Rot-Weiß Essenvs
SSV Jahn Regensburg
COMPLETEDGermany · 3. Liga · 10/23/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rot-Weiß Essen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rot-Weiß Essen 1-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg
Original prediction
Rot-Weiß Essen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 50.7% | 58.2% | 7.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 23.7% | 18.8% | -4.9 pts |
| Away | 3.54 | 25.5% | 23.0% | -2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Rot-Weiß Essen
Probability
58.2%
Model confidence
58.2%
Rot-Weiß Essen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20